Bedirthanaverage and garstar have a nice NPB feature column up at ITP. Hyperlinked in title bar.

Akinori Iwamura is a FA after 2007 and therefore a candidate to be posted after 2006 … we think. He is a big-time power guy (30 HR, 102 RBI in a short season 2005) and has won many gold gloves at 3B.

In 2004, he hit 44 homers in 138 games. Beautiful, eh?

Not so fast. Iwamura’s K:BB was 146/63 and in the majors, that would get worse. (Unless Iwamura cut his swing way down in scaredy-cat rookie Godzilla fashion, which would ruin his value in a different way).

Russell Branyan and Justin Leone are comparable players in America; they can destroy AAA pitching, but they have holes in their swings. Guess what John Lackey does with those over-swings? You got it.

Dallas MacPherson is another talented, powerful 3B (cough) with troublesome K:BB ratios. An optimist could say that with Iwamura, he was bidding on the Japanese MacPherson, and he wouldn’t be too far off track.

Golden Boy, Dept.
Iwamura’s development arc — Player Card — shows that he was a quality NBP player at the age of 20. At 20-23, Iwamura did as much as MacPherson ever did at that age. This means:

1) Iwamura is not a Justin Leone “accomplished journeyman” type; he’s more in the Golden Boy category.
2) He could be in the majors before he’s 30.

Because of Iwamura’s development arc, you’d probably estimate him to be the Japanese MacPherson, rather than its Branyan. (Of course, Branyan himself was MacPherson when he was 22, if that makes any sense).

And the Branyan comp points out that Iwamura could VERY possibly be an oustanding platoon player — as Branyan still is — even if he couldn’t hit lefties.

Who would want to take a chance on Dallas MacPherson right now if DMac were a gold glove third baseman? I’m not Iwamura’s biggest fan, but he’s got to show up on MLB’s radar as a very high-profile prospect.

Cheers,
Dr D